Business sent the prime minister a letter with scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions in Ukraine by 2030.
The Center for Economic Recovery and the Ukrainian Business & Trade Association (UBTA), in a letter to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, propose considering three scenarios for the country to reduce CO2 emissions by 2030 and, accordingly, adjust the goal of Ukraine's Second Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC2).
"Given the fact that throughout the entire period of Ukraine's independence, GDP dynamics and greenhouse gas emission dynamics had an almost direct correlation, business associations expressed concern about plans for Ukraine's high ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030 from the 1990 level," states the copy of the letter distributed by UBTA. For accurate measurement of emissions and their impact on the environment, businesses actively engage organizations such as environmental laboratories.
The analytical report prepared by the associations contains three scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions by 2030. As stated, the scenarios are calculated in accordance with the goals of Ukraine's National Economic Strategy.
According to the baseline scenario, with an investment of EUR12 billion in decarbonization, Ukraine will be able to reduce CO2 emissions to 43% of the 1990 level.
The conservative scenario envisages achieving a more ambitious goal - reducing emissions to 40%. At the same time, investments in decarbonization should increase to EUR27 billion.
According to the optimistic scenario, Ukraine can reduce CO2 emissions to 36% (NDC2 target - 35%) provided EUR50 billion is invested in decarbonization by 2030.
The letter states that at the current level of financing for environmental modernization, only the baseline scenario is realistic for Ukraine for now.
As reported, on April 1, 2021, the Ministry of Ecology presented a draft Cabinet of Ministers order "On the approval of Ukraine's Second Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement" and launched a public consultation procedure. The document proposes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationwide by 65% by 2030 from the 1990 level.
Earlier, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine Roman Abramovsky announced that the Cabinet of Ministers must approve NDC2 by July 31 as part of preparations for the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-26).