Environmental trends of 2020. What forecasts do experts give for the future?
The coronavirus overshadowed all previous problems, but did not cancel them
The year 2020 made the world different. For the first time, the entire planet lived in equally extreme conditions, and this demonstrated how fragile and unreliable the order of things we are used to is. The coronavirus overshadowed all previous problems, but did not cancel them. Environmental challenges on a global scale still remain in the first place, and the outgoing year clearly demonstrates this.
Deep analysis of 2020 is still ahead. But today it is already possible to outline a number of trends in the field of ecology that have clearly manifested themselves and that will certainly resonate in the future.
Nature and coronavirus
The phrase "nature has cleansed itself so much" in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic became a meme of 2020. Stories about dolphins in the canals of Venice turned out to be a certain exaggeration, but the impact of the coronavirus and quarantine on the global ecosystem was tangible. If only because CO2 emissions into the atmosphere decreased by 7%. People began to move less by cars and planes, which leave a significant carbon footprint. Emissions decreased the most in the USA (12%) and Europe (11%), the least — in China (1.7%).
But the trend of decreasing CO2 emissions has a flip side. Experts predict that after the end of the pandemic in 2021 or 2022, their level will again become peak, because humanity will begin to catch up with forced restrictions in movement and communications.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also forced serious reflection on the connection between the epidemic and human impact on nature. Experts point out that due to human expansion, different species have never been so close to each other. As a result, viruses that previously circulated exclusively among animals are now attacking humans. The more humans destroy the ecosystem, the more frequent such phenomena will become.
Temperature records
Global climate change is making itself felt with new temperature records in different parts of the world. In the realm of permafrost - Antarctica - at the beginning of 2020, +20.75 °C was recorded. This record was set on Seymour Island. In addition, scientists observed significant warming in all 23 areas of the continent.
Meanwhile, the Northern Sea Route from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean was completely ice-free for the first time in summer. This means radical changes not only of an ecological but also of a geopolitical nature, as it intensifies the struggle of powerful states for Arctic resources.
Ukraine regularly broke temperature records throughout the year. In particular, at the beginning of October, the capital experienced its warmest weather in the entire history of meteorological observations (the temperature did not drop below +15.1 °C).
World on fire
News of massive fires has become an integral part of the information space of the world and Ukraine. It all started in Australia, where flames engulfed forests back in the summer of 2019. But this story only ended last spring. Scientists attribute the cause of the massive fires to extreme heat, low humidity, and wind that spread the ignition sources. As a result of the natural disaster, 34 people died, over a billion animals, almost 19 million hectares of territory were burned, and 306 million tons of CO2 were released into the atmosphere. Australia will take years to recover from the catastrophe.
Unfortunately, massive fires have become a trend in Ukraine as well. First, in April, Chornobyl forests burned, where the fire covered an area of over 67 thousand hectares. It took a month to finally extinguish it. At the end of September, forests in the Luhansk region caught fire, and 32 settlements were affected. People instantly lost their homes, and 11 people died.
It is unlikely that these phenomena can be attributed solely to arson. Because we are already living in a different climatic reality than before, and with a high degree of probability, it can be predicted that such events will repeat again and again. Scientists from the University of Melbourne, in alliance with the world's best ecologists, concluded in their study that more than 4.4 thousand animal species will be endangered precisely because of fires.
Climate disasters - the biggest threat
This was stated by the participants of the Davos World Economic Forum in January 2020. It was announced that in the next 10 years, an increase in the number of extreme weather events and natural disasters can be expected. They also expressed concern about the likelihood of biodiversity loss and the destruction of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. All this creates extraordinary risks for the global economy.
The participants of the Davos forum supported the initiative Trillion Trees, which seeks to restore the green capacity of our planet. They emphasized the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement on climate, because failure to achieve its goals (keeping the temperature increase within 2 degrees °C) will lead to a climate apocalypse.
Climate refugees
In 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee adopted a decision according to which a person cannot be deported from a country if they are threatened in their homeland by circumstances related to climate change. Thus, the UN recognized that climate threats are analogous to military threats. Therefore, the emergence of a mass of climate refugees is only a matter of time, and the world needs to prepare for such a turn of events.
Euro-7 Standard
The European Union has begun developing a new environmental standard for cars (Euro-7). Experts believe that its introduction will mean the end of the era of internal combustion engines and the EU's transition to environmentally friendly means of transport. In total, they plan to reduce CO2 emissions by another 66% compared to the Euro-6 standard.
This will also have important consequences for Ukraine. Let me remind you that we still have not implemented the Euro-6 standard and have become a market for used cars that are not profitable for owners to maintain in the EU. It is obvious that after the introduction of even stricter norms, the flow of environmentally dangerous cars to Ukraine will only increase.
Meanwhile, leading German car manufacturers — Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Daimler, BMW, Opel, Ford Deutschland — have made a joint statement that by 2030, more than half of the cars in the country will be powered by electricity.
Coal is losing ground
For the first time in decades, electricity generation from coal has decreased. These were the results of the first half of 2020, and there is a chance that the trend will continue until the end of the year. In 6 months, power plants with a total capacity of 18.3 gigawatts were put into operation, but plants with a capacity of more than 21 gigawatts were closed. This is happening mainly due to Europe, although the development of coal energy is also slowing down in Southeast Asia. The exception is China, where similar energy facilities are being built in massive numbers.
Germany is becoming the flagship of clean energy in the European Union. The Bundestag has adopted a law according to which the country will abandon coal by 2038. Owners of coal-fired power plants and regions dependent on them will receive compensation from the state.
This is only a part of the key events that are changing the environment right before our eyes. All of them will develop in 2021. But discouraging forecasts should not demotivate us - humanity has chances for positive changes. However, only if there is unity, clear goals and mechanisms for their implementation. I hope our country will be included in the process of achieving a better environment for a common future.